BOGALUSA - Three million people infected; between 600,000 and 1.4 million clinically ill; 3,000 to 6,000 deaths.
That is the predicted impact on Louisiana if a pandemic bird flu were to come, said Dr. Parham Jaberi, the Region IX director of the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals.
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Jaberi spoke at the Bogalusa Country Club, giving a 40-minute presentation to the local Rotary Club.
"I don't know if it will ever happen," he told the group of about 20 Rotarians. However, the threat is real, and communities can take action now to mitigate the impact when it hits, Jaberi said.
"The pandemic flu is scary because a lot of people are going to be sick," he said.
Jaberi's presentation covered recent history pandemics such as Spanish Influenza of 1918 (more than 20 million deaths worldwide) and the Asian Influenza of 1957 (1-2 million deaths).
The bird flu virus, known as H1N1, has always been in birds, but about four years ago it made the jump to humans, Jaberi said. However, the virus has not found a way to jump from human to human, he added.
But therein lies the fear.
"The fear is that will probably happen," Jaberi said. When it does, and spreads much like the common flu does every year, the potential to kill millions of people across the globe is very real.
Scientists cannot make a vaccine for the virus now, Jaberi said, because they don't know exactly what it will look like if or when it does make a change to go from human to human. It would take about six to eight weeks after the virus has been identified to make a vaccine, he said.
Although it is impossible to know exactly how a deadly bird flu virus would enter the United States, Jaberi said it would likely start in a southeast Asia or other country. I would then come to the U.S. with a traveler to likely New York City, Los Angeles or Miami. It's possible, though, that the first major city affected is New Orleans, which has a sizeable Vietnamese community. One of their friends or relatives could bring the virus, Jaberi said. That scenario would mean the virus would travel to Bogalusa sooner. In any case, the virus could spread worldwide in a matter of weeks, Jaberi said.
The federal and state governments are working to prepare for an outbreak, and Louisiana has more than 300,000 antiviral pills that limit viral reproduction in the body. By December of this year the number of pills should be up to 669,657.
The Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals is also encouraging community hospitals to stock up on personal protective equipment such as masks, gloves and respirators. Rotarian Beverly Sheridan, a nurse at the LSU Bogalusa Medical Center, said the local hospital has been stockpiling those items and currently has enough to supply their patients and staff.
Jaberi said it is impossible to predict when the next pandemic flu will occur, but planning for it now will help save lives. Individually, people can limit the risk of catching or spreading any kind of flu by: getting a vaccine when available; staying at home when sick; covering mouth when coughing; washing hands regularly; avoid touching eyes, nose and mouth; and avoiding close contact with people who are sick.
Limit your risks
Individually, people can limit the risk of catching or spreading any kind of flu by:
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